the end is near!

umm...wow. okay, i'm not usually one to be interested in end-of-the-world theories, particuarly those involving some sort or religious overtones, but i have to admit that this news report is a bit too close for comfort:

background. the asteroid 99942 Apophis, discovered just recently in 2004, is expected to pass by earth at a distance no closer than 18,300 miles - that is significantly less than the orbits of most geosynchronous satellites. oh, and this is predicted to occur on Friday, April 13th, 2027. yes, you read that right: Friday the 13th.

bad luck. so, this asteroid is going to pass by earth on friday the 13th, but what's the big deal? you said it wouldn't be any closer than that, right? yes, that's correct, for that particular date. however, 7 years later Apophis will again pass by earth. the tricky part is that should Apophis strike any of the hundreds of satellites we have up there, its path will be altered enough that it may hit earth directly. oh, and this is predicted to occur on Sunday, April 13th, 2036 - Easter Sunday. i'm serious.

so, in summary, if we have the most unlucky friday the 13th ever and Apophis hits a satellite, we may all meet our maker on easter sunday seven years later.

but andy, what are the chances of this even happening? well, NASA's Near-Earth Object Program said there's a 1 in 45,000 chance that it could happen. better than the lottery, but still a crap shoot. but wait - while doing his research project, a 13 year old german kid calculated the risk to actually be a 1 in 450 chance. still very small, but waaay too close for comfort.

what are we going to do?! well, NASA is looking at several different plans, and from reading this article, it sounds very much like the discussion in the movie armageddon. they haven't decided to send up a crew of oil field workers, but they have talked about trying to cover the rock in some sort of reflective coating and pray that the solar rays push it away from earth. which is like someone throwing a baseball past you, and while it's going past, you try to throw a water balloon up in the air in front of it. i don't know about you, but my money would be on the oil field guys at that point.

there are a ton of other factors to be considered in this. the asteroid is too close to the sun right now, so we can't even get a good look at it until 2011, and won't be able to get a radar measurement until 2013.